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The recent oil price raises for crude oil producers a respite. Oil prices fell sharply last year, have enabled the economy of Russia, Venezuela and other oil producers. And recently, Crude oil prices are increase from the a barrel in January, approaching to a barrel. The economists began to re-examine your prediction model.
Oxford Economics, a senior economist Adam Slater told CNBC: "if oil prices continue to rebound, the consumer's real income and spending will be decreased from our current forecast."
Slate with oil prices will in the next two years at a barrel for the hypothesis, is expected in the future.
He will also be this kind of situation with oil prices at .50 at the end of this year and in 2016 and at .90 by the end of the benchmark hypothesis condition were compared.
Soaring oil prices, he said, the overall impact of global economic growth will be more moderate, pull slightly lower global economic growth to 2.7% in 2015, and 2016 growth from 3% down to 2.8%.
The United States, Japan and Europe and other developed economies is one of the biggest losers, and the biggest winner will be the Gulf countries, Venezuela, oil exporters such as Russia and Malaysia. At the same time, the oil importing countries of the developing countries will suffer.
Slater, points out that a steady rise in oil prices this year made Russia's central bank cut interest rates more likely. Last year, Russia's central bank raised interest rates sharply to stabilize the currency.
Slater expects China's economy will slow if the oil prices rise. He expects China's growth to fall from 6.5% this year to 5.6% next year.
And oil importer of India's economy will slow. Slater expects India's economic growth will fall from 7.4% this year to 7.3% next year.
The recent rebound in oil prices is likely needed to consume a large amount of crude oil of the national economy poured cold water.But oil producers may thus have the opportunity to increase their income.
Last year, the global slump in oil prices has led to major oil-producing countries such as Russia and Venezuela have sought to reduce revenue. No one knew long-term oil prices. And oil prices rebounded recently let some forecasters adjust their mode to see how the price rebound is likely to be.
The price rebound has encouraged some oil producers continue to drill for oil in the United States. After oil prices plummeted in drill number dropped sharply. But last week in the number of drill in the oil-rich region run slightly increase, this is the number of drill in running this year increase for the first time.
Analysts said that oil supply will continue to increase inhibit oil prices."We are increasingly worried about the second half of 2015 and 2016 oil fundamentals."
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